As we speak Michael Oliver, the person who’s well-known for his lethal correct forecasts on shares, bonds, and main markets, despatched King World Information solely this simply issued main gold and silver replace.
September 18 (King World Information) – Michael Oliver, founding father of MSA Analysis: Early this month silver produced a brand new value low beneath July’s. Then after silver’s early month low it nearly instantly recouped from that momentum non- confirmed low (charts on web page 10). And it recouped sharply.
Early this month gold refused to do the identical. Lastly final week gold took out the July lows. Let’s see what occurs now. To date the brand new low in gold has not been confirmed by weekly momentum or this bigger scale 3-mo. avg. momentum chart.
Chart feedback, value first. A parallel channel that we respect. Regardless of new lows, up to now value isn’t having to depend on the channel backside this time round. Rallying into the mid-$1740s later this week will put motion above that declining channel high. A really optimistic degree to beat, adjusting down day by day.
Momentum is extensively non-confirming the brand new value lows. A construction of significance was set on the August oscillator excessive—the zero line. In eleven buying and selling days that zero line/3-mo. avg. is projected to drop to $1728.2. Which means if there’s a day by day shut in October above that falling common/zero line, then momentum will emerge from a base that’s now 5 months vast.
MSA is presently utilizing October future which expires 10/27. Rotating to the December future then…
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Silver: 3-mo. avg. momentum
Silver has clearly been doing one thing completely totally different from gold since early this month. Silver made its non-confirmed low (a brand new value low beneath July, not confirmed by momentum) on the primary day of buying and selling this month and has since firmed resolutely, completely ignoring gold.
Its momentum construction on the zero line was hit once more final week (and really marginally closed above on Monday). However by its pullback in the course of the week, it was clearly nonetheless saying that the 3-mo. avg./zero line is the important thing degree to credibly overcome. This month that zero line stays $19.74. (MSA remains to be utilizing the September future as entrance month. It’s presently buying and selling about 8¢ beneath December futures, the extra energetic contract. MSA will rotate to the December future as soon as September expires on Wednesday, September twenty eighth.)
We’re updating the 100-day momentum chart we included in prior reviews resulting from its head-and-shoulder-type bottoming sample (not evident on value, simply momentum).
The rally early final week cleared the neckline, and on a closing foundation the pullback final week held alongside that line.
Silver vs. gold: the unfold
There was a breakout ultimately week’s shut. The unfold’s momentum closed above all weekly peak closes (three at an an identical degree) going again to March 2021.
The unfold’s momentum produced a much less clear breakout shortly after that March 2020 bear entice low. Recall that occasion? What adopted was not solely dramatic relative outperformance by silver vs. gold, but additionally sharp internet development upside in each metals.
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